Subprime
Esta presentación se explica por si sola.
viernes, 15 de febrero de 2008
martes, 29 de enero de 2008
miércoles, 9 de enero de 2008
Recesión en USA para el 2008?????
En español
Reuters
Goldman Sachs sees recession in 2008
Wednesday January 9, 8:33 am ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.
In a note to clients, Goldman said real gross domestic product would contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and third quarters. For all of 2008, the investment bank said GDP would rise by 0.8 percent.
The unemployment rate will rise to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.
The weakening economy will force the Fed to lower policy rates by an additional 1.75 percentage points from the current 4.25 percent. Starting in September, the Fed cut rates at the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, reducing the target rate on loans between banks by 1 percentage point from 5.25 percent.
Goldman strongly advises fund managers to overweight health care, consumer staples, energy and utilities. They are significantly underweight consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials and information technology.
The three most significant changes to their sector recommendations are the reduction in the financial sector weighting by 300 basis points to 14 percent, the information technology weighting by 400 basis points to 15 percent, and the increase in their health care weighting by 300 basis points to 17 percent, the firm said.
Their reduced allocation to financials reflects weak fundamentals and their declining weight in the S&P 500. The reduction in information technology reflects that the group has been the second-worst performing sector in both the six months leading up to a recession and during the first phase of a recession, Goldman said.
The health care weighting change reflects strong performance of the group during the six months leading up to and during the first phase of a recession in addition to an attractive valuation, Goldman said.
On Monday, Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg said the jump in U.S. unemployment in December confirmed that the economy was entering a recession.
Reuters
Goldman Sachs sees recession in 2008
Wednesday January 9, 8:33 am ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.
In a note to clients, Goldman said real gross domestic product would contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and third quarters. For all of 2008, the investment bank said GDP would rise by 0.8 percent.
The unemployment rate will rise to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.
The weakening economy will force the Fed to lower policy rates by an additional 1.75 percentage points from the current 4.25 percent. Starting in September, the Fed cut rates at the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, reducing the target rate on loans between banks by 1 percentage point from 5.25 percent.
Goldman strongly advises fund managers to overweight health care, consumer staples, energy and utilities. They are significantly underweight consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials and information technology.
The three most significant changes to their sector recommendations are the reduction in the financial sector weighting by 300 basis points to 14 percent, the information technology weighting by 400 basis points to 15 percent, and the increase in their health care weighting by 300 basis points to 17 percent, the firm said.
Their reduced allocation to financials reflects weak fundamentals and their declining weight in the S&P 500. The reduction in information technology reflects that the group has been the second-worst performing sector in both the six months leading up to a recession and during the first phase of a recession, Goldman said.
The health care weighting change reflects strong performance of the group during the six months leading up to and during the first phase of a recession in addition to an attractive valuation, Goldman said.
On Monday, Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg said the jump in U.S. unemployment in December confirmed that the economy was entering a recession.
viernes, 4 de enero de 2008
HCC ACQUIRES MULTINATIONAL UNDERWRITERS
Traducir al español
HCC ACQUIRES MULTINATIONAL UNDERWRITERS;
RECEIVES APPROVAL FOR NEW LLOYD’S SYNDICATE
HOUSTON (January 3, 2008) . . .
HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HCC) announced today that it had acquired Indianapolis, Indiana-based MultiNational Underwriters, LLC (MNU).
MNU is a recognized leader in international life, accident and health insurance offering coverage to customers in more than 130 countries. MNU’s clients include United States citizens traveling or residing outside the country, U.S. corporations with employees and their families traveling or residing abroad, foreign nationals and the employees of foreign companies outside their home countries, missionary organizations, and institutions of higher education with foreign programs.
Founded in 1998, MNU is expected to write more than $40 million in premium in 2008. President Betsy Brougher and the MNU team of professionals in Indianapolis and at locations around the world will remain with the company following closing.
In conjunction with the MNU acquisition, HCC has received approval from Lloyd’s, effective January 1, 2008, to establish a new Lloyd’s Syndicate, 4141, which will initially write the MNU international accident and health insurance, and other selected lines of business in the future. The 2008 year capacity of Syndicate 4141 is approximately $24 million. In addition to Syndicate 4141, HCC Underwriting Agency Limited will continue to manage Syndicate 4040.
"MultiNational Underwriters’ success is driven by the use of the Internet as a vehicle for offering 24-hour-a-day insurance services worldwide, a concept that it continues to refine. We are proud to add a company as innovative as MNU to the HCC organization," HCC Chief Executive Officer Frank J. Bramanti said.
"Our Lloyd’s platform will enable HCC to continue to expand its product offerings as well as allow HCC to avail itself of the many advantages of underwriting in the Lloyd’s market," Mr. Bramanti said.
Headquartered in Houston, Texas, HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HCC) is a leading international specialty insurance group with offices across the United States and in Bermuda, Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom. HCC has assets of more than $8.0 billion, shareholders’ equity in excess of $2.3 billion and is rated AA (Very Strong) by Standard & Poor’s, AA (Very Strong) by Fitch Ratings and A+ (Superior) by A.M. Best Company.
For more information, visit our website at www.hcc.com.
HCC ACQUIRES MULTINATIONAL UNDERWRITERS;
RECEIVES APPROVAL FOR NEW LLOYD’S SYNDICATE
HOUSTON (January 3, 2008) . . .
HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HCC) announced today that it had acquired Indianapolis, Indiana-based MultiNational Underwriters, LLC (MNU).
MNU is a recognized leader in international life, accident and health insurance offering coverage to customers in more than 130 countries. MNU’s clients include United States citizens traveling or residing outside the country, U.S. corporations with employees and their families traveling or residing abroad, foreign nationals and the employees of foreign companies outside their home countries, missionary organizations, and institutions of higher education with foreign programs.
Founded in 1998, MNU is expected to write more than $40 million in premium in 2008. President Betsy Brougher and the MNU team of professionals in Indianapolis and at locations around the world will remain with the company following closing.
In conjunction with the MNU acquisition, HCC has received approval from Lloyd’s, effective January 1, 2008, to establish a new Lloyd’s Syndicate, 4141, which will initially write the MNU international accident and health insurance, and other selected lines of business in the future. The 2008 year capacity of Syndicate 4141 is approximately $24 million. In addition to Syndicate 4141, HCC Underwriting Agency Limited will continue to manage Syndicate 4040.
"MultiNational Underwriters’ success is driven by the use of the Internet as a vehicle for offering 24-hour-a-day insurance services worldwide, a concept that it continues to refine. We are proud to add a company as innovative as MNU to the HCC organization," HCC Chief Executive Officer Frank J. Bramanti said.
"Our Lloyd’s platform will enable HCC to continue to expand its product offerings as well as allow HCC to avail itself of the many advantages of underwriting in the Lloyd’s market," Mr. Bramanti said.
Headquartered in Houston, Texas, HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HCC) is a leading international specialty insurance group with offices across the United States and in Bermuda, Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom. HCC has assets of more than $8.0 billion, shareholders’ equity in excess of $2.3 billion and is rated AA (Very Strong) by Standard & Poor’s, AA (Very Strong) by Fitch Ratings and A+ (Superior) by A.M. Best Company.
For more information, visit our website at www.hcc.com.
miércoles, 19 de diciembre de 2007
Recesión en USA
A 49.5 se cotiza, en www.intrade.com, la probabilidad de una recesión en USA.
En la encuesta de Yahoo, 59% de los encuestados consideran que se avecina una recesión en USA.
lunes, 3 de diciembre de 2007
domingo, 2 de diciembre de 2007
The Lies That (Some) Financial Advisers Tell
Traducir al español
I recently ran across an interesting article by Ric Edelman in Bottom Line/Personal (no link, sorry). In it, he ran down a list of the biggest lies that you’ll hear from a financial adviser, and how they could cost you money. What follows is a synopsis of that article, along with some thoughts of my own. While it may be a stretch to call some of these things “lies,” they certainly can be misleading.
-You should rebalance your portfolio once a year.
In truth, Edelman argues that once per year isn’t enough. Because market fluctuations can knock your portfolio allocation out of whack, it’s important to periodically rebalance it. But if you blindly choose a specific date, Edelman worries that it might wind up being the wrong time of year, or that you might have waited too long to react to a significant shift in the market. Rather, you should rebalance as soon as any investment category shifts by a predetermined amount. The example that Edelman gives is a target allocation of 10% in small caps. If your portfolio drifts to the point that you’re now holding 8% or 12% in this category, you should consider rebalancing to get back to the 10% target.
All in all, this makes sense, and it helps to ensure that you are selling high and buying low. The only real ‘gotcha’ here is to be aware of the potential tax consequences. In particular, rebalancing by buying/selling in a taxable account could result in a nasty surprise come tax day. An alternative strategy would be to simply shift your contribution amounts such that you are buying more of one class and less of another until things get back in line. Another option would be to use so-called Target Retirement funds, which automatically adjust to track an age-appropriate allocation.
-You should shift all of your accounts to more conservative investments as you approach retirement.
Instead of using your retirement date as the guiding force, you should focus on when you expect to start tapping into a certain account. This makes sense to me because retirees are living longer than ever before, and shifting to an overly conservative mix too soon could easily cause you to run out of money before you run out of days. According to Edelman, you should maintain a more aggressive investment mix in accounts that you won’t be tapping for seven or more years, whereas you should to an increasingly conservative mix after that until you’ve achieved the desired conservative stance about three years before the anticipated withdrawal dates.
-The stock market will crash between 2017 and 2024.
The logic here is that when baby boomers start retiring in droves, they’ll start liquidating their stock holdings. According to Edelman, however, there’s no reason to think that this batch or retirees will be too different from those that have gone before them. Thus, he expects them to gradually liquidate holding as needed, rather than staging a massive sell off.
-Retirees who focus on investment income should focus primarily on interest-yielding bonds and CDs.
According to Edelman, this strategy causes your income to fluctuate too much, depending on the vagaries of interest rates. If rates fall, you’ll have less cash coming in and will have to scale back your lifestyle. While creating a CD ladder can help smooth out interest rate fluctuations, but if you spend out the interest every year then you’re exposing yourself to inflationary risk (i.e., your principal won’t increase, so your interest won’t increase even though prices will).
Edelman recommends adding dividend-paying stocks the income portion of your portfolio. If the resulting income isn’t sufficient, you’ll be able to sell a portion of your assets that have (hopefully) appreciated. Of course, there’s also the risk that your stock won’t appreciate, and you’ll be stuck in the same pickle.
-Try to have enough saved up to pay for college based on the projected costs based on when your kids will matriculate.
The danger here is that college costs will continue to rise while your kids are in school. Thus, if tuition is $30k/year when your child starts school and prices continue to increase at 7%, the total cost will be $133,198 rather than $120,000.
Of course, this assumes that you want to pay for your kids’ (or grandkids’) college in the first place. But assuming that you do, it’s something to keep in mind.
I recently ran across an interesting article by Ric Edelman in Bottom Line/Personal (no link, sorry). In it, he ran down a list of the biggest lies that you’ll hear from a financial adviser, and how they could cost you money. What follows is a synopsis of that article, along with some thoughts of my own. While it may be a stretch to call some of these things “lies,” they certainly can be misleading.
-You should rebalance your portfolio once a year.
In truth, Edelman argues that once per year isn’t enough. Because market fluctuations can knock your portfolio allocation out of whack, it’s important to periodically rebalance it. But if you blindly choose a specific date, Edelman worries that it might wind up being the wrong time of year, or that you might have waited too long to react to a significant shift in the market. Rather, you should rebalance as soon as any investment category shifts by a predetermined amount. The example that Edelman gives is a target allocation of 10% in small caps. If your portfolio drifts to the point that you’re now holding 8% or 12% in this category, you should consider rebalancing to get back to the 10% target.
All in all, this makes sense, and it helps to ensure that you are selling high and buying low. The only real ‘gotcha’ here is to be aware of the potential tax consequences. In particular, rebalancing by buying/selling in a taxable account could result in a nasty surprise come tax day. An alternative strategy would be to simply shift your contribution amounts such that you are buying more of one class and less of another until things get back in line. Another option would be to use so-called Target Retirement funds, which automatically adjust to track an age-appropriate allocation.
-You should shift all of your accounts to more conservative investments as you approach retirement.
Instead of using your retirement date as the guiding force, you should focus on when you expect to start tapping into a certain account. This makes sense to me because retirees are living longer than ever before, and shifting to an overly conservative mix too soon could easily cause you to run out of money before you run out of days. According to Edelman, you should maintain a more aggressive investment mix in accounts that you won’t be tapping for seven or more years, whereas you should to an increasingly conservative mix after that until you’ve achieved the desired conservative stance about three years before the anticipated withdrawal dates.
-The stock market will crash between 2017 and 2024.
The logic here is that when baby boomers start retiring in droves, they’ll start liquidating their stock holdings. According to Edelman, however, there’s no reason to think that this batch or retirees will be too different from those that have gone before them. Thus, he expects them to gradually liquidate holding as needed, rather than staging a massive sell off.
-Retirees who focus on investment income should focus primarily on interest-yielding bonds and CDs.
According to Edelman, this strategy causes your income to fluctuate too much, depending on the vagaries of interest rates. If rates fall, you’ll have less cash coming in and will have to scale back your lifestyle. While creating a CD ladder can help smooth out interest rate fluctuations, but if you spend out the interest every year then you’re exposing yourself to inflationary risk (i.e., your principal won’t increase, so your interest won’t increase even though prices will).
Edelman recommends adding dividend-paying stocks the income portion of your portfolio. If the resulting income isn’t sufficient, you’ll be able to sell a portion of your assets that have (hopefully) appreciated. Of course, there’s also the risk that your stock won’t appreciate, and you’ll be stuck in the same pickle.
-Try to have enough saved up to pay for college based on the projected costs based on when your kids will matriculate.
The danger here is that college costs will continue to rise while your kids are in school. Thus, if tuition is $30k/year when your child starts school and prices continue to increase at 7%, the total cost will be $133,198 rather than $120,000.
Of course, this assumes that you want to pay for your kids’ (or grandkids’) college in the first place. But assuming that you do, it’s something to keep in mind.
martes, 27 de noviembre de 2007
Bupa, nueva línea de productos.
El día de ayer tuvimos la oportunidad de asistir al seminario de la nueva linea de productos de Bupa. Entre las características novedosas podemos mencionar:1.- Los productos no tienen coaseguro.
2.- Opción de deducible $00.00 en el país de origen.
3.- Máximo de 2 deducibles por año, por familia.
4.- Los deducibles incurridos en los últimos 3 meses (año póliza), aplican para el próximo año.
5.- En lo que respecta a la suscripción de negocios, existen 3 posibilidades; extraprimar, copago únicamente para la condición en cuestión o excluir la condición. Todo con el ánimo de acpetar al prospecto.
6.- Deportes peligrosos estan cubiertos. En el plan complete, incluso para quienes los practican profesionalmente.
7.- Maternidad no aplica deducible (10 meses de período de espera)
8.- Los rangos de cambio de primas son cada 5 años, y de los 70 a los 75 años es anual y de los 75 años en adelante ya no hay cambio de rango.
Estas son algunas de las características de la nueva linea de productos.
viernes, 23 de noviembre de 2007
50 Ways I Can Improve Myself
Traducir al Español
Physically
1. Simple food, quality, quantity.
2. Regularity in eating and sleep.
3. Masticate (means chew your food); leave table hungry.
4. We are a part of all we have eaten.
5. Exercise, five minutes, three times daily.
6. Air — most important.
7. Sunlight, artificial light.
8. Water inside and outside.
9. Loose clothing.
10. Early to sleep; get plenty.
Mentally
1. Think sanely.
2. Learn from mental superiors.
3. Learn to listen attentively.
4. Read best newspapers and books.
5. Improve the memory.
6. Concentrate.
7. Don’t worry unnecessarily.
8. Be systematic.
9. Weigh both sides.
10. Avoid inferior minds.
Morally
1. Right is right, wrong is wrong.
2. Be truthful.
3. Ignore precedent if wrong.
4. Seek elevating recreation.
5. Don’t deceive yourself.
6. Learn to say “no.”
7. Live up to your principles.
8. Avoid temptation.
9. Form good habits.
10. Have a constitution.
Financially
1. Increase my earnings.
2. Decrease unnecessary expense.
3. Save money, U.S. Postal Bank.
4. Money makes money.
5. Invest — don’t gamble.
6. Make family budget.
7. Hard work.
8. Study the business.
9. Pay cash for everything.
10. Increase credit balance.
Socially
1. Avoid bad associates.
2. Select helpful friends.
3. Think alone.
4. Learn to be happy alone.
5. Family best company.
6. Work out, alone, my problems.
7. Avoid so-called society.
8. Entertain economically.
9. Stand well with neighbors.
10. Do some welfare work.
Physically
1. Simple food, quality, quantity.
2. Regularity in eating and sleep.
3. Masticate (means chew your food); leave table hungry.
4. We are a part of all we have eaten.
5. Exercise, five minutes, three times daily.
6. Air — most important.
7. Sunlight, artificial light.
8. Water inside and outside.
9. Loose clothing.
10. Early to sleep; get plenty.
Mentally
1. Think sanely.
2. Learn from mental superiors.
3. Learn to listen attentively.
4. Read best newspapers and books.
5. Improve the memory.
6. Concentrate.
7. Don’t worry unnecessarily.
8. Be systematic.
9. Weigh both sides.
10. Avoid inferior minds.
Morally
1. Right is right, wrong is wrong.
2. Be truthful.
3. Ignore precedent if wrong.
4. Seek elevating recreation.
5. Don’t deceive yourself.
6. Learn to say “no.”
7. Live up to your principles.
8. Avoid temptation.
9. Form good habits.
10. Have a constitution.
Financially
1. Increase my earnings.
2. Decrease unnecessary expense.
3. Save money, U.S. Postal Bank.
4. Money makes money.
5. Invest — don’t gamble.
6. Make family budget.
7. Hard work.
8. Study the business.
9. Pay cash for everything.
10. Increase credit balance.
Socially
1. Avoid bad associates.
2. Select helpful friends.
3. Think alone.
4. Learn to be happy alone.
5. Family best company.
6. Work out, alone, my problems.
7. Avoid so-called society.
8. Entertain economically.
9. Stand well with neighbors.
10. Do some welfare work.
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